Provisions and Potential Impacts of the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program

Replaced with revised version of paper 11/24/08.Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

"Maximizing Conservation and In-Kind Cost Share: Applying Goal Programming to Forest Protection"

This research evaluates the potential gains in benefits from using Goal Programming to preserve forestland. Two- and three-dimensional Goal Programming models are developed and applied to data from applicants to the U.S. Forest Service’s Forest Legacy Program, the largest forest protection program in the United States. Results suggest that not only do these model yield substantial increases in benefits, but by being able to account for both environmental benefits and in-kind partner cost share, Goal Programming may be flexible enough to facilitate adoption by program managers needing to account for both ecological and political factors.Goal programming, multi-objective programming, conservation optimization, forest conservation, environmental services, in-kind cost sharing, matching grants

Estimates of Minnesota Farm-Level Crop Commodity Payments under New House Framework

The objective of this study is to compare commodity payments under current Federal farm policy with the previous Senate and Administration proposals and the recently released “2008 Farm Bill Conference: House Agriculture Committee-Developed Concept for a Farm Bill Spending Framework.” Projections of crop revenue and government payments are made using historical yield data for each example farm, the county, and the nation; historical price data; and statistical distributions and relationships of these yields and prices. Using 2007 FAPRI price projections (which are closer to the prices expected in the next few years when a new farm bill will be in force), expected Total Government Payments (TGP) are almost entirely attributed to the fixed direct payments under all these proposals. Since commodity prices are so far above their “target levels” the possibility of a counter cyclical price or revenue payment or a loan deficiency payment is highly unlikely. TGP under the alternative policies follows a similar pattern on the example corn and soybean farms and a slightly different but fairly consistent pattern for the example wheat and soybean farms. For the corn and soybean example farms in southern Minnesota, the HB-RCCP and USDA proposals generate very similar levels of TGPs compared to current policy. HB-RCCP provides a slightly higher expected TGP than CP for all example farms except for one and higher TGP than USDA for all farms. ACR is estimated to provide lower TGP for all example corn and soybean farms. For the example wheat and soybean farms in northwest Minnesota, the results are mixed. Compared to the other three proposals, ACR provides higher TGP for 2 of the 6 example farms. Each of the proposals does reduce risk as measured by CV. We note ACR is not quite as efficient at risk reduction except for two wheat/soybean farms in northwest Minnesota.Farm Management,

Tables of square-law signal detection statistics for Hann spectra with 50 percent overlap

The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, currently being planned by NASA, will require that an enormous amount of data be analyzed in real time by special purpose hardware. It is expected that overlapped Hann data windows will play an important role in this analysis. In order to understand the statistical implication of this approach, it has been necessary to compute detection statistics for overlapped Hann spectra. Tables of signal detection statistics are given for false alarm rates from 10(exp -14) to 10(exp -1) and signal detection probabilities from 0.50 to 0.99; the number of computed spectra ranges from 4 to 2000

Alternative Farm Bills: Impacts on Minnesota Farms

With the current federal farm bill set to expire at the end of September this year, many proposals have been made to redesign the next bill. The objectives of this study are to compare the current policy with major proposed alternatives and estimate the potential payments of farmers under each of the alternatives. The alternative policies are compared in two ways. First a historical comparison of crop revenue and estimated government payments for individual farms are made under each proposal from 2002-2005. In a second comparison, projections of crop revenue and government payments are made using historical yields for each farm, county, and nation; historical price data; statistical distributions of the yields and prices including averages, standard deviations, and correlations; and each proposal's rules for calculating payments. For yields, deviations from the yield trend are used. In three of the four years and on average, the American Soybean Association (ASA) proposal has higher payments and thus higher total gross revenue compared to current policy and the other three proposals. Since the ASA proposal raises both loan rates and target prices, the higher payments should be expected. The proposed USDA policy is estimated to have a slightly higher average government payment and total gross revenue compared to current policy, but it is not higher than current policy in each year. Lower total payments under the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) proposal are due to higher than average revenues during 2002-05. The revenue insurance proposal does not create any indemnity payments in 2002-05 again due to the higher revenues in these years. Projections of potential revenue also show the ASA proposal to have higher estimated payments. Average government payments are estimated to be slightly higher under current policy compared to USDA's and NCGA's proposals. Since federal budget concerns may not allow the higher payments under the ASA proposal, the choice between the USDA and NCGA proposal may hinge on the level of administrative costs which would appear to be lower with the USDA proposal since it is based on one national estimate of revenue versus many county and individual calculations under the NCGA proposal. The potential use of multi-commodity revenue insurance will hinge on either the ability to provide additional support in fixed direct payments and green payments and larger federal budget concerns.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Risk Analysis of Organic Cropping Systems in Minnesota

When all strategies received conventional market prices, 4-year cropping sequences had greater net returns than 2-year sequences, and the organic input, 4-year strategy had the highest net return. Adding 50% of the estimated organic premium, the 4-year, organic strategy dominated all low- and high-purchased input strategies.Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Direct Observation of Large Amplitude Spin Excitations Localized in a Spin-Transfer Nanocontact

We report the direct observation of large amplitude spin-excitations localized in a spin-transfer nanocontact using scanning transmission x-ray microscopy. Experiments were conducted using a nanocontact to an ultrathin ferromagnetic multilayer with perpendicular magnetic anisotropy. Element resolved x-ray magnetic circular dichroism images show an abrupt onset of spin excitations at a threshold current that are localized beneath the nanocontact, with average spin precession cone angles of 25{\deg} at the contact center. The results strongly suggest that we have observed a localized magnetic soliton.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Causal Quantum Theory and the Collapse Locality Loophole

Causal quantum theory is an umbrella term for ordinary quantum theory modified by two hypotheses: state vector reduction is a well-defined process, and strict local causality applies. The first of these holds in some versions of Copenhagen quantum theory and need not necessarily imply practically testable deviations from ordinary quantum theory. The second implies that measurement events which are spacelike separated have no non-local correlations. To test this prediction, which sharply differs from standard quantum theory, requires a precise theory of state vector reduction. Formally speaking, any precise version of causal quantum theory defines a local hidden variable theory. However, causal quantum theory is most naturally seen as a variant of standard quantum theory. For that reason it seems a more serious rival to standard quantum theory than local hidden variable models relying on the locality or detector efficiency loopholes. Some plausible versions of causal quantum theory are not refuted by any Bell experiments to date, nor is it obvious that they are inconsistent with other experiments. They evade refutation via a neglected loophole in Bell experiments -- the {\it collapse locality loophole} -- which exists because of the possible time lag between a particle entering a measuring device and a collapse taking place. Fairly definitive tests of causal versus standard quantum theory could be made by observing entangled particles separated by $\approx 0.1$ light seconds.Comment: Discussion expanded; typos corrected; references adde